China's ODI surge signals a quiet redrawing of global influence

Editor's note: Imran Khalid, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a freelance columnist on international affairs. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

According to China's Ministry of Commerce, the country's outbound direct investment (ODI) grew by 6.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025, reaching $40.9 billion. The more meaningful number, non-financial ODI, which reflects real business projects abroad, increased by 4.4 percent to $35.68 billion. Even more striking was a 15.6 percent jump in investment tied to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), now at $8.87 billion. Also, as reported by China's National Bureau of Statistics on Sunday, from January to March, the total profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size reached about 1.51 trillion yuan (around $207 billion), a year-on-year rise of 0.8 percent.

At first glance, these may look like small percentage changes. But they signal something bigger: China is steadily expanding its global economic reach, especially in developing regions, despite the West's ongoing narrative that its economy is slowing or struggling.

In recent years, Western media have widely used the term "Peak China" to suggest that China's best economic days are behind it. Commonly cited problems include high youth unemployment, a shaky property market, and sluggish domestic spending. But these new investment figures tell a different story. While China deals with internal economic shifts, its companies and capital seek opportunities abroad.

There's an apparent reason behind this. Investing overseas allows China to build stronger ties in emerging markets. It's not just about sending money abroad – it's about staying globally relevant at a time when Western dominance is under question. The nearly 16 percent rise in BRI-related investment is especially telling.

Critics have often dismissed the BRI as overly ambitious or risky. But recent growth suggests the project is evolving, becoming more focused, less flashy, and more effective. This is even more remarkable considering the increasing pushback from the West. While the U.S. talks of a "China threat" and the EU promotes "de-risking," many developing countries continue to work with Chinese firms because they deliver accurate results – roads, ports, and power plants – without lectures or long strings attached.

In the first quarter of 2025, Chinese companies also saw a 5.5 percent increase in revenue from overseas projects, reaching $34.18 billion. New contracts surged by 26 percent to $58.67 billion. These numbers show that global demand for Chinese engineering and construction is not slowing – it's growing.

What's driving this continued growth? Policy consistency. Despite domestic issues and international tensions, Beijing has remained steady in its support for global investment. Chinese financial and government institutions are still closely aligned in promoting projects that serve both economic and foreign policy goals.

Focusing on countries in the Global South that need major infrastructure, China has been less exposed to market volatility in the West. These countries aren't just passive recipients but active partners in a shared development vision.

Chinese companies don't just offer funding – they handle everything from financing to building to maintenance. That full-package model, especially for big infrastructure projects, is complex to match globally. And it's evolving quickly to meet new demands around sustainability, geography and digital tools.

As U.S.-led global systems lose influence, China is stepping in to fill the gaps. Many countries that once looked to Washington or Brussels now engage directly with Beijing, often more flexibly. What's striking is how quietly China has gone about this. There have been no big announcements, no international fanfare – just steady progress, while much of the world is focused on conflicts, elections and economic worries.

This low-key approach to economic diplomacy – focused on getting things done rather than making headlines – could prove more effective over time. These investment numbers aren't a random spike; they reflect a long-term pattern of strategic expansion. China is not making grand declarations. It's laying roads, building ports and setting up digital infrastructure across continents.

Ironically, this happens even as Western countries try to "decouple" or reduce economic ties with China. While the Group of Seven nations talk about reducing dependence, many countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are doing the opposite by welcoming more Chinese investment to build their futures. They understand the risks, but they also see the rewards.

Of course, not every project succeeds. Political changes, local resistance, or poor planning can derail well-funded efforts. However, the first quarter of data shows that China is not pulling back from the global stage. If anything, it's pushing forward – quietly, steadily, and with a clear focus.

In a world where chaos often grabs the headlines, China's message is calm and consistent: It is still moving, building and investing – one project at a time. Its outbound investment isn't just about money; it's a signal of intent. Despite all the talk of decline, China is still in the game, and it's playing for the long term.

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